Calgary,March 2022
I started my previous essay by a quote from French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, who 150 years ago wrote: “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” Also, in the previous essay I used that quote to compare the relationships between U.S., Russia, and China to the beginning of the Cold War in 1950s. But in my worst nightmares I didn’t think a better comparison would be to the year 1939, the beginning of WWII. In the world of economic interdependence, where money flows over the borders and companies operate globally, a war in Europe couldn’t happen, or so I thought. Why should it? Who would benefit? I didn’t make any sense at all, but it did happen anyway. A deranged dictator started it just to boost his ego. Putin is sacrificing Russia for his fantasy of being a new tzar of a new Russian empire. How is that possible in the twenty-first century? The quote that “The more things change, the more they stay the same” is true, but it doesn’t explain why on 24. 2. 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine. The real question now is: “What will be the consequences of that invasion?” Will it lead to the war in the whole Europe? Will it cause WWIII? Only two weeks ago those questions would be considered absurd.
Today, 12 days after the invasion, Ukraine is in all-out war. Russian army is surprisingly incompetent, and Ukrainians are successful in holding them back. For how long, nobody knows. If Russians occupy the territory, they will be faced with a long and costly guerilla war. Western world will support Ukraine and sanctions will ruin Russian economy. Russian population will suffer and will hate western countries for that. Ukrainians already hate Russians for the invasion. NATO countries will become one armed camp with hard-core propaganda against Russians and Chinese. The sanctions will also affect the standard of living in NATO countries and their population will hate Russians. Russia will become a true police state, and this mutual hate will last for generations. It is incredible how the world, build after the fall of communism, based on mutually beneficial trade relationships, where conflicts of ideology disappeared, collapsed in just two weeks.
Why did it happen? A book, appropriately called The Dictator’s Handbook, written in 2011 by Bruce Mesquita and Alastair Smith, suggests the answer to that question. In the introduction the authors say: Politics, like all life, is about individuals, each motivated to do what is good for them, not what is good for others. Not the interest of the nation, only the personal interest of the ruler is what determines his (almost always men) political decisions. This is true for all political systems all over the world. The important part is to align the interest of the country with the interest of the ruler. Since the basic interest of all rulers is to stay in power, in democracy that means to be elected, therefore the public opinion maters. Dictators don’t have this problem. All they have to do is to buy the loyalty of few influential supporters, the book calls them essentials. Putin doesn’t have to worry about public opinion. He made himself a president for life and has enough police to crush any dissent. So, if he decides to become the new Russian tzar to boost his ego, and if he bribes the essentials enough to go along, there is nothing to stop him to invade Ukraine. The destruction it causes is not his problem.
Interestingly enough, China Xi Jinping also made himself a president for life. In theory, China is governed by National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China, which currently has almost three thousand deputies, but it is considered a rubber stamp for the Chinese Communist Party. Therefore, if Xi Jinping decides to invade Taiwan, who will oppose him? Two weeks ago, I would say that such an invasion cannot happen, that invading Taiwan doesn’t make any sense, but now I don’t know. It might boost Xi Jinping’s ego.