Calgary, April 2023
Recently I read a book called Exxon: The Road Not Taken. It deals with the beginning of research linking the burning of fossil fuels with global warming. I found the information interesting and to make it more presentable, I invented an interview with an old employee of Exxon oil company, David, who answers my questions.
“Hello David,” I started the interview. “It looks that facts don’t matter anymore, people preferer to follow their emotions. Do you agree?”
“Yes. I personally witnessed such a denial of reality. But it had nothing to do with emotions, it was all about money.”
“You refer to your work at Exxon, the largest US oil company, I presume.”
“Yes. If in 1980s the company wouldn’t deny what science was telling them, we wouldn’t be facing the climate crisis we are facing now.”
“What do you mean?”
“In 1980s Exxon management knew perfectly well that adding carbon dioxide into atmosphere by burning fossil fuels will increase the global temperature. In fact, during the end of 1970s Exxon was the leader in what we now call the environmental research. But when in 1980s the science confirmed the harmful effect of burning fossil fuels, the company made 180 degrees turn and started to deny the evidence. Profits were more important that climate change.”
“Are you saying that the causes of global warming were known in 1980s?”
“Yes. In 1970s Exxon assembled a team of leading scientists to research the question of the so called ‘greenhouse effect’. The management wanted to know if the warming was real and if they should diversify to the non-polluting sources of energy. But when the answer was: ‘yes, it is real’, they didn’t want to hear it. Instead, they put all their effort into suppressing their own research and unfortunately, some scientists supported it.”
“How do you know all that?”
“In 1981 Exxon hired me to develop their computer simulation models of the greenhouse effect. By mid 1980s the results were conclusive, but the upper management didn’t like it. They were promoting doubts about our conclusions and when the oil price collapsed in 1986, the company drastically slashed the research budget.”
“What is the current Exxon attitude towards the climate change?”
“They don’t deny it anymore, but they try to delay the transition to renewable energy as much as possible. But it is a losing battle. After 2010 it was increasingly difficult to deny that burning fossil fuels contributes to the global warming. In 2017 Exxon annual meeting, 62% of shareholders voted to request the company to publish its preparedness for the low-carbon future. In 2015 that number was 23%. In 2021 two of the 12 members of Exxon board directors were replaced by pro-environment nominees. For Exxon as well as for the whole oil industry this is the never-ending battle between profits and environmental protection. Currently oil brings them huge benefits and they want to keep it that way.”
“I read that in 2022 oil companies made a record profit of more than $200 billions.”
“Yes. In 2022 oil price skyrocketed for two reasons: end of COVID and the war in Ukraine.”
“How do you asses the future?”
“The question is if the fossil fuel industry, which caused the problem in the first place, could also be a part of a solution. Currently oil companies invest on average no more than 1% of their budget on renewable energies. By investing more, they could contribute to the climate research, as Exxon showed in 1980s. After all, it is impossible to deny reality forever.”
“Thanks David, it was interesting.”